Thursday, May 21, 2009

T20: All about luck?

You tell me.

Many former players have said that T20 is all about luck and is "not quite cricket".

Apparently whosoever can slog, does well. "Test players" (and by the token of that phrase they become "real cricketers") don't do well because they can't play those ugly shots.

Similarly bowlers get lucky in getting wickets, because batsmen take more risks.

There are more runouts as well. And its fast-paced so clearly not for the OTs (over thirty-somethings).

So they say.

However, the more I look at the current semi-finalists and the tournament in general, the more I think otherwise.

# Now look at a team like CSK, we know its batsmen heavy and we've always known that apart from Murali they don't have an international bowler. Sure Albie and Oram bowl, but even for their own national teams, they are not the frontline bowlers.

So did T20 make them lucky, and mask their performances?
No. Their bowlers have often been caught underpeforming, and Dhoni hasn't minced any words while stating the same.

# Similary RR underperformed because many of their local players haven't played for Team India. And those who did do well, were Team India players, like Pathan and Jadeja.

Last year RR's performance was most talked about, and Warne's leadership was the focal point of that story; however, we tend to forget that Smith was in-form(and he was the leading ODI batsman), they had Shane Watson doing well, and Jadeja and Pathan to hold fort.

Similarly, in bowling they had Sohail Tanvir (who did exceedingly well-purple cap holder), Munaf, and of course Warne.

I am not taking anything away from Warne. I am only trying to say that their win was no fluke, there were cricketing reasons associated with those victories. No?

# Now look at a team like Punjab, they missed a good opener like Shaun Marsh, missed Lee for most of the tournament and Sreesanth was benched as well due to injury. It reflected in their inconsistent performances.

Meanwhile, one of their leading batsman, Ravi Bopara, went on to score centuries against the Windies. So a good batsman in T20 as well as tests.

# Similarly, who have been the best batsmen of the tournament? Who have top scored? Among Indians, we immediately think of Raina and Rohit; and these two have often been considered test prospects, and not just sloggers.
Also, among internationals, we think of Hayden, AB, Duminy, Sanga etc. Again quality batsmen.

# Look at the bowlers: Malinga, RP, Edwards... these people did not get lucky did they? Wouldn't they be selected by their national teams for ODIs as well?

# And I've already talked about the "old men" doing well.

The point is that the more I look at the teams, those that had good players and were well-led did well.
Sure KKR and MI, despite being good teams, choked at important moments, but would you call that being "not lucky".. for isn't mental strength also a sporting/cricketing skill?

So sure T20 is not TEST cricket, but is it ALL about luck?
You tell me.

13 Maidens bowled!!:

Tifosi Guy said...

Leela

Fair points raised, but like all forms of cricket T20 is another where those players/teams who play the big moments well will win.

Sure the 'luck' is more magnified considering the time span of the game and it's expected.

It was a very valid point raised by Gilchrist (I think) that in T20 even big teams can be humbled by the also rans or bottom feeders, simply because the version doesn't allow you to recover back. Unlike in ODI's forget tests.

Which if you also spin around - means in T20 to be the winner you simply HAVE to be ON THE BALL, from ball one.

I can vouch that no team can ever become the benchmark for T20, unlike ODI's or Tests..

Lastly, small errata Shaun Marsh !!! not Shawn Marsh :)

Cheers !

p.s : I suppose you done with your term papers :) Did well I hope !

Oh and predos for final, I'm going left field and say it's a CSK - DC final. DD will have a brain freeze tomorrow.

CSK ofcourse to pip it in the final !

Leela said...

TG,

I agree that in T20 being aware is the key; not that in Tests people are sleep walking...but you know what I mean.
But being aware cannot be considered "not cricket". Right?

Like see when the ODIs came along and there was the 50 over restriction, people started taking risky singles, and "cricketing skills" like "running between the wickets" and "throwing at the stumps" got introduced.
Now we take such skills as basic minimums, even in tests.
You know what Iam saying...

I can vouch that no team can ever become the benchmark for T20, unlike ODI's or Tests
Agreed. But I think that will not be because of fluctuating fortunes; it will be based more on whether on any given day the players will be able to perform 100% in a short span of time... without getting breathing space to recover.

I'll correct the spelling mistake.. as you can tell I am still struggling with my papers!

CSK-DC final, yeah that would work!

Q said...

I don't think its ALL luck, but there is a factor.

What I mean is that relatively lesser teams can beat the better ones more often in T20 than they can in ODIs and Tests.

And the reason for that is the short time-frame of the match.

I say that because I believe it is easier to play good and tough cricket for 20 overs than it is to do that over 50 overs or over 5 days.

Just like its easier to maintain a run rate of 8-9 per over for a few overs.. but not for the full length of a 50 over game.

The better batsmen will do better in all forms of the game.. tests, ODIs, T20. Batsmen who have been brought up on "proper cricket" will do better in tests than they will in T20.. e.g. a Dravid and a Kallis can be expected to grind it out for a day and score a 100, but not to score a 50 of 25 balls.

Works vice versa as well.. batsmen like Imran Nazir can score a 100 in 50 balls in a T20, but they dont have it in them to play out a day and do so...

The better players like Hayden, AB, Sehwag,can do all..

As for luck.. there's a bit of it in every form of the game..

Leela said...

Q,

I say that because I believe it is easier to play good and tough cricket for 20 overs than it is to do that over 50 overs or over 5 days.
I guess that is the bottomline and that is why upsets are more possible in a shorter format as you say. And yes some luck plays an hand.
However, like I guess we've all agreed so far, its not all luck.
:-)

David Barry said...

Obviously there is some cricketing skill involved in T20. The question is how much of the results come down to luck. That may be something we can only answer in a few years' time, when we have seen enough matches. The answer also depends on how close the teams are in ability.

Given how close the tournament has been this year (KKR excepted), I would say that luck had a huge amount to play in deciding the final order of the teams. When you have relatively evenly-matched teams, what decides which team wins on any given day? Mostly it is luck. One star batsman fails, the other gets his eye in and makes a heap of runs. Brendon McCullum could easily have fired at the start of the tournament rather than at the end.

Leela said...

David,

When you have relatively evenly-matched teams, what decides which team wins on any given day? Mostly it is luck.

Exactly. The key phrase here is "relatively evenly-matched teams".
Which shows that when some people (ex-cricketers etc) say that its a bit of a lottery, its not true because the team with clearly superior skills will win most of the time.

Sure occasionally a weaker team will beat a stronger team, but that has happened in ODIs too.. (Cardiff, Ban v. Aus, 2005).

Welcome to the blog, btw.
:-)

adverbin said...

Well reasoned Leela. And some excellent points raised in the comments.
I can only add that luck is not a factor in sustaining intensity in batting, bowling and fielding. It is not a factor is poor selection. It is not a factor in off-field factors damaging morale. (Think KKR).
But it cetainly is a factor in poor umpiring decisions. Thankfully the few such decisions have not really afected the results so far.
I do not think it will be easy for a team to recover from a crucial bad decision. This is only where I see luck playing a part.
All those ex-players commenting on the T20 being ALL about luck have not played the game at the level we are seeing in the IPL.

raj said...

Luck - Warne had Watson and won last year. This year, he lost just one or two resources, and was knocked out. So, was he a magic captain last year, and crap this year? No, the truth is in-between.
Was he lucky that last year he had Watson or unlucky that Watson was not available this year? In the end, that seems to have been the difference. So how much of the so-called great captaincy of Warne last year is true?

In T20, you just need 2-3 world class batsmen, and if they fire, they can fire for 10-15 overs and close the match. But over a period of time, a side with only 2-3 batsmen will even out in performance graph. But luck is important on a given day - and if that happens to be a semi final or final, then you need luck apart from skills

Leela said...

Adverbin,

Thanks.

Yeah agree about the level of the games. I saw the Stanford games in passing last year (not the England fiasco) and it was BAD!
I guess the quality of the players lifts T20 to the next level.

Leela said...

Raj,

Watson, and Sohail Tanveer. And you are forgetting an in-form Smith. With Asnodkar firing on flat pitches (agree he is not a test prospect).. so it was good cricketers all round.

But I wouldn't trivialize Warne's leadership. Given everything being relatively same, its those crunch moments that decide. And here is where Warne is good. He always gets people to punch above their weights.

Leela said...

Raj,

Agree about luck in knock out stages playing an imp role.

Inodphile said...

Gilli single handedly smashed DD well lets see what tomorrow brings for Dhoni's boys

Leela said...

IP,

Yeah. I for one will be watching with great intrest.