Lemme just fess up and say that I am mathematically-challenged.
So CSK has 3 more matches. And I am begining to wonder what they need to do to get into the semis. Win 1 or 2 or all 3?
This is their schedule:
May 16,2009 Saturday Chennai Super Kings v Mumbai Indians
May 18,2009 Monday Chennai Super Kings v Kolkata Knight Riders
May 20,2009 Wednesday Chennai Super Kings v Punjab Kings
So far they have 13 points from 11 matches. How many will seal the deal?
What is the magic number?
The effects of a ton by Tendulkar.
2 hours ago
31 Maidens bowled!!:
A single win may be enough depending on who they beat as well as the results of the other games, but two wins would mean they're through no matter what. Please don't ask me how I figured it out, just take my word :)
And if the good guys win tomorrow they're assured of third place in the table.
Mahek,
I'll take your word for it. No questions asked!
And if the good guys win tomorrow they're assured of third place in the table.
By "they" you mean CSK, right? Ok then will cheer for the good guys tomm!
:-)
Oops I meant the GOOD GUYS would be assured of third place. Sorry about that!
Mahek,
Tch tch.
:o(
You don't need to worry about Chennai. It would take a massive realignment of planets for them to not make it, and let's face it, they're not Mumbai that they'd screw up.
Mahek,
Phew! That IS reassuring.
Poor MI though, can't seem to get rid of their choking habits.
Yeah, isn't it great?
I think the matches I've enjoyed most over the two seasons are:
1.Mumbai v Punjab at the Wankhede
2.Mumbai v Rajasthan at Sawai Man Singh Stadium
3.Mumbai v Punjab at Kingsmead
4.Mumbaci v Rajasthan at Kingsmead
They say history repeats itself first as tragedy, then as farce. What do you call history being repeated a third time???
One more win might not be enough. Since KKR has flopped so badly, the top 4 teams may just have more than 15 points each (total 112 points over 8 teams)
But then CSK's NRR could see them through.
Worst case scenario if Chennai only beat Mumbai:
Delhi beat Punjab
Chennai beat Mumbai
Deccan beat Kolkata
Deccan beat Punjab
Rajasthan beat Delhi
Kolkata beat Chennai
Bangalore beat Delhi
Rajasthan beat Kolkata
Punjab beat Chennai
Mumbai beat Delhi
Deccan beat Bangalore
Delhi 18
Deccan 18
Rajasthan 17
Chennai 15
Bangalore 14
Mumbai 13
Punjab 10
Kolkata 5
There are other possibilities too, which is why I said it depends on who Chennai beat and what happens in other games. But by and large, it would take all the results going against them if they have to go out after winning another game.
Well, just win them all regardless. That's the best policy.
This is all probability isn't it....so many scenarios are possible even now Mumbai have a chance........
Well yeah, there are 192 outcomes where Chennai would win 1 out of their 3 games. We're not going to list them all.
But two wins and they can't finish lower than fourth no matter what.
Too early to say still.. many teams are in with a chance so u cant be sure.. to be dead sure CSK may have to win 2 but then again if the other teams do as well then it may come down to NRR..
Its too close to call.
And if u want drown into some mathematics and see what are CSK's chances, then hop on here:
http://www.wellpitched.com/2009/05/what-are-chances-of-your-ipl-team.html
and then to Kridaya's.
According to that site Delhi are already through, which they aren't. There's a chance they might finish fifth, although it's highly unlikely.
In Mahek's "worst case scenario" post - if Chennai wins only one more match ...
... All it takes is the result of the last match to be reversed i.e. Bangalore beats Deccan, for Chennai not to qualify.
It wasn't the worst case scenario. I started to figure it out but after a while I realised this isn't worth my time. Chennai are good enough to do whatever is needed.
PSK,
I hope CSK win the next two at least and with a decent NRR, it should be OK.
Amy,
True dat sister!
Otherwise its getting confusing.
Q,
Checked your post. This is confusing indeed!
Too close to call, but I think if CSK win 2, they are set.
I think.
:o)
CPD,
True, MI have a chance still.
Mahek,
What do you call history being repeated a third time???
Dramedy? More history?
OK those were cheezy answers!
My cricket writing guru is a Mumbaikar... I cannot betray my guru. Hence I am a supporter of MI too. Those were tuff matches for me to watch.
Anyway, probability was never my thing. I think now I know why.
:0)
Yeah but I think CSK will scrape thru. I hope.
Hey Leela.. my rss reader showed an Ashes post on ur blog last night.. but when i came to the site, it was not there.. ?
Hey Q,
I had written that a few days ago and wanted to delete it (did not quite like it) but hit "publish" by mistake!!
I am technology challenged as well I guess!
:-)
Leela
No take on today's CKS triumph over MI :) Two goals achieved ( personally for me !) in one go - CSK pretty much through to the semis ( afterall they play KKR next!) and MI pretty much knocked out :)
Combined with a certain result in soccer this afternoon - I couldn't have asked for a better sporting Saturday!
TG,
Watching the CSK v. MI match (replay) right now!
(Timing issues..what can I say.)
Will post something by noon my time.
:o)
A win for either Punjab or Rajasthan tomorrow and Mumbai are officially history.
Mahek,
History or not, one got the feeling they had given up on this match in the last few overs...
Chennai are through unless their NRR takes a major nosedive and Rajasthan's is propelled by whatever Nadal is on. You girls can breathe easy.
Thanks Mahek.
Heck I need whatever Nadal is on!
:O)
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